Intelligence Library
Structured analytic products covering hemispheric and global risk. Every assessment is readable online and downloadable as a PDF.
21 assessments
A spate of car bombs, explosive-rigged drones, and improvised landmines across Mexico signals a durable shift in cartel tactics that raises risk for police, communities, road transport, and companies operating in contested states.
Arrests across five Brazilian states and the capture of a suspected leader in Colombia show a regionally coordinated campaign against Tren de Aragua, whose expansion model now depends on partnerships with entrenched local groups.
U.S. authorities disrupted QScan and QTRouter, platforms attributed to the PRC-linked QTFY group that weaponized thousands of IoT devices and proxy systems to obscure cyber operations against government, defense, financial, academic, and critical-infrastructure targets.
Haiti absorbed nearly 200,000 forced returns during the first eight months of 2026 as gangs expanded violence beyond established strongholds, including an attack in Kenscoff that killed 47 people.
Washington's announced majority-control arrangement over Venezuelan reserves could reorder hemispheric energy relationships, but unclear legal authority, underinvestment, grid weakness, and limited export capacity make rapid production gains unlikely.
Fuel scarcity and a fragile oil-dependent grid are cascading into water, healthcare, food, transport, telecommunications, and tourism failures across Cuba, while expanded U.S. pressure narrows external relief.
Illegal gold mining, timber extraction, coca corridors, and riverine smuggling routes are converging into a single, increasingly integrated Amazon criminal economy spanning Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela.
Colombia's security realignment shifts from announcement to execution as assistance converts into deployments, raising near-term retaliation risk against security forces and exposed infrastructure.
Negotiations between Venezuela's interim government and an opposition delegation opened a de-escalatory political window, but leaders on both sides now say the country is not yet ready for a new election, without defining readiness conditions or a timetable.
A security alert halted the inspections required for avocado exports from Michoacan, showing how criminal violence can interrupt the regulatory personnel a major cross-border food supply chain depends on.
New external support and a more coercive domestic security posture raise the probability of retaliatory violence against Colombian security forces and exposed infrastructure.
Simultaneous confrontations with Argentina and the United States are increasing political, commercial, information-security, and election-period risk.
Brazil has entered the active phase of its October 2026 election amid contested polling, foreign-influence allegations, and expanding military roles in public security across Latin America.
Quiet, durable access embedded in ordinary infrastructure gives adversaries options for espionage, disruption, and crisis activation.
Dollar dominance persists through market depth, legal infrastructure, trade invoicing, collateral, and network effects - not a single political decree.
Overlapping bilateral corridors are lowering the cost of sanctions evasion, war sustainment, weapons exchange, and diplomatic resistance.
Chinese purchases of Iranian crude are sustained by a distributed ecosystem of refiners, front companies, opaque settlement, and shadow-fleet shipping.
Jamming, spoofing, cyber intrusion, ground-segment compromise, and orbital congestion are the most accessible threats to space-enabled services.
The cyber environment remains defined by ransomware, identity attacks, known exploited vulnerabilities, and abuse of trusted technology providers, with Latin America and the Caribbean now absorbing a disproportionate share of intrusion activity.
Russian electronic warfare against Starlink illustrates how commercial constellations have become military infrastructure and priority targets.
China's downstream processing dominance creates a strategic bottleneck for defense, technology, energy, and advanced manufacturing supply chains.
