China's Purchase of Iranian Oil

Executive summary

Chinese purchases of Iranian crude are sustained by a distributed ecosystem of refiners, front companies, opaque settlement, and shadow-fleet shipping.

Key judgments

• China — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12 months forecast horizon.
• Iran — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12 months forecast horizon.
• Energy — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12 months forecast horizon.
• Sanctions — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12 months forecast horizon.
• Maritime Security — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12 months forecast horizon.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.