Strait of Hormuz and Global Energy-Security Exposure

Executive summary

VERIFIED DEVELOPMENTS: Reuters reported on 28 September 2026 that Qatar-linked LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with shipping data showing resumed transits after disruption in August; the waterway remains a critical chokepoint. Reuters also reported on 28 September that oil prices remained elevated amid continued U.S.-Iran tensions and supply-disruption concerns, and that strategic petroleum reserve stocks had fallen to 283.8 million barrels as of the prior week. SENTINEL MERIDIAN ASSESSMENT: Resumed transits reduce immediate supply stress but do not change the structural exposure: a large share of seaborne crude and LNG must pass a narrow waterway adjacent to an active conflict. We assess with moderate confidence that disruption risk remains elevated across the forecast horizon, and that the lower level of strategic reserves reduces the buffer available to absorb a renewed interruption. We make no price forecast. The principal channels of exposure are war-risk insurance and freight costs, LNG and crude delivery reliability for import-dependent economies, and downstream effects on petrochemicals, fertiliser, and energy-intensive manufacturing.

Key judgments

• Resumed LNG transits after August disruption lower immediate stress but do not remove the chokepoint's structural risk while U.S.-Iran conflict continues.
• War-risk insurance premiums and freight rates are the fastest-moving transmission channel and can rise without any physical closure.
• Lower strategic petroleum reserve stocks (reported at 283.8 million barrels) reduce the buffer available to offset a renewed interruption.
• LNG-importing economies in Asia and Europe face the most direct delivery exposure to Qatar-linked flows.
• Downstream exposure extends to petrochemicals, fertiliser, aviation fuel, and energy-intensive manufacturing through input-cost and availability effects.
• Sentinel Meridian does not forecast prices; clients should model scenarios for delay, rerouting, and cost increases rather than point estimates.

Sources and references

1. Reuters, reporting on Qatar-linked LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, 28 September 2026.
2. Reuters, reporting on oil prices, U.S.-Iran tensions, and strategic petroleum reserve stocks, 28 September 2026.

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