The Architecture of Chokepoint Statecraft

China's downstream processing dominance creates a strategic bottleneck for defense, technology, energy, and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

Key judgments

• Supply Chains — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 2026-2030 forecast horizon.
• Mining and Critical Minerals — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 2026-2030 forecast horizon.
• China — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 2026-2030 forecast horizon.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.