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SM-2026-TA-108Threat level: High

Brazil Election Interference and Regional Security Militarization

Foreign influence, political polarization, election-system narratives, and regional security militarization.

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Brazil entered a more volatile election phase amid concern over foreign influence, online manipulation, political polarization, and expanding military roles in public security across Latin America.

Key judgments

  • Political Risk — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the Through October 2026 forecast horizon.
  • Foreign Influence — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the Through October 2026 forecast horizon.
  • Elections and Governance — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the Through October 2026 forecast horizon.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.

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