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SM-2026-TA-106Threat level: Elevated

The Dollar-Oil Order

How the postwar monetary system became dominant, why oil trades in dollars, and how challengers have fared.

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Cover of The Dollar-Oil Order

Dollar dominance persists through market depth, legal infrastructure, trade invoicing, collateral, and network effects - not a single political decree.

Key judgments

  • Economic Security — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 5-10 years forecast horizon.
  • Energy — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 5-10 years forecast horizon.
  • Sanctions — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 5-10 years forecast horizon.
  • De-dollarization — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 5-10 years forecast horizon.
  • BRICS — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 5-10 years forecast horizon.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.

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