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SM-2026-TA-105Threat level: High

The CRINK Convergence

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea: economic alignment, sanctions resilience, and BRICS linkages.

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Cover of The CRINK Convergence

Executive summary

Overlapping bilateral corridors are lowering the cost of sanctions evasion, war sustainment, weapons exchange, and diplomatic resistance.

Key judgments

  • China — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.
  • Russia — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.
  • Iran — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.
  • North Korea — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.
  • BRICS — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.
  • Sanctions — assessed as a driving factor in this analytic line, tracked over the 12-36 months forecast horizon.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.

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