Michoacan's Avocado Supply Chain Under Criminal Pressure

Executive summary

The United States is partially restarting activities in Michoacan after a security alert halted the inspections required for avocado exports. Mexico deployed more than 1,500 security personnel to the state. The event is the latest in a recurring series of inspection disruptions and demonstrates how organized-crime violence can interrupt the regulatory personnel and processes on which a major cross-border food supply chain depends.

Key judgments

• Immediate U.S. supply impact appears limited because inventories and shipments already in transit can cushion a short interruption.
• The strategic vulnerability is recurring: inspection activity has been disrupted by security concerns in 2022, 2024, and 2026.
• Threats against inspectors can produce commercial effects without attacking farms, packing houses, border crossings, or transport infrastructure directly.
• Extended or repeated suspensions would increase price, inventory, and contract risk.

The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.