Executive summary
The United States plans to provide $1 billion in security assistance to Colombia's new government as President Abelardo De La Espriella begins a harder-line campaign against narcotics networks and armed groups. The combination of new external support, a more coercive domestic security posture, and persistent insurgent and criminal capability raises the probability of retaliatory violence against security forces and exposed infrastructure.
$1.0B
Planned package for Colombia's security transition.
Key judgments
- The planned $1 billion U.S. package materially increases resources potentially available for Colombia's security transition.
- Armed groups retain the capability and incentive to answer intensified state pressure with asymmetric attacks.
- Energy, transport, police, military, and U.S.-linked facilities warrant heightened monitoring during the first 100 days.
- Colombia remains under a U.S. Level 3 travel advisory, with several departments designated Do Not Travel because of crime and terrorism.
The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.
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