Executive summary
Illegal gold mining, unlicensed timber extraction, coca cultivation corridors, and riverine smuggling logistics in the Amazon basin no longer operate as separate illicit markets. Shared transport routes, shared labour pools, shared bribery networks, and shared laundering channels have produced an integrated criminal economy that spans Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. State presence is thin, jurisdictional seams are wide, and enforcement in one country routinely displaces activity across a border rather than suppressing it.
- Illegal gold mining
- 5/5
- Riverine smuggling
- 4/5
- Timber extraction
- 4/5
- Coca corridors
- 4/5
- Official corruption
- 4/5
Relative pressure across the principal Amazon illicit domains over the forecast horizon.
Key judgments
- Illegal gold remains the highest-margin and most launderable Amazon commodity, and it now funds logistics used by other illicit flows.
- Riverine corridors, not roads, are the decisive infrastructure; control of fuel supply and river junctions confers control of the economy.
- Single-country enforcement surges displace rather than reduce activity, producing measurable cross-border relocation within weeks.
- Legitimate supply chains in gold, timber, and agricultural commodities carry material contamination and compliance exposure.
- Violence is concentrated against local officials, indigenous communities, environmental monitors, and journalists rather than against foreign personnel.
The full assessment, including sourcing, analytic confidence statements, and indicators and warnings, is available in the downloadable PDF.
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